KIRAS Security Research

CBRNe scenarios pose a huge challenge to decision-making processes of response forces. These incidents are highly dynamic situations where decisions are often based on simple modelling to calculate impacts. Currently, so-called "danger zones” or “affected areas” are calculated by means of propagation models such as ALOHA, MET or the software EINSATZASSISTENT. These form the basis for shut-off or evacuation measures. The majority of these models used, allow the calculation of airborne pollutants based on simple input parameters. Calculation models for pressure and heat effects after explosions are only insufficiently available to emergency response personnel (e.g. MET). At present, expert models for pressure and heat effects are only available for the assessment of industrial incidents and are not sufficiently fast and easy to apply in applications. Detailed and advanced modelling (e.g. CFD) currently require too much computational effort and time, and thus lacking valid input data (e.g. building data). Especially in urban terrain, it is not sufficient to determine only hazard radii. Decision Making Processes within emergency response organisations must also include the endangerment of people or objects. The decision is therefore made by a risk assessment.

The ERIMAPS project is taking a completely new approach. By linking impact modelling (explosion pressures, heat effects and toxic effects) with spatial or demographic data as well as atmospheric information, a system for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map is to be developed.

As part of the ERIMAPS project, the basics for the development of a software solution for the representation of a real-time risk map are being worked out and the applicability of a risk-based assessment of the hazardous area investigated.

The question: "What happens in an event in the next few minutes, who and how many will be affected, where is a focus and what resources are required," is to be answered with the ERIMAPS approach with just a few user inputs.

The basis for this are GIS data from the cadaster of the cities of Graz and Linz as well as available modelling for accident impact analysis from the industrial environment. It is necessary to improve available calculation models for the determination of damage effects to such an extent or to simplify the input parameters, so that the models used lead to reliable results even with little data available. As part of the ERIMAPS project, the applicability of the technology concept will be confirmed and the mode of operation of the individual models will be demonstrated. The ERIMAPS project forms the basis for integrating the technology into existing information and decision support systems and applications.